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Pick right time to target Wesfarmers

The recent declines in the Wesfarmers share price  is creating opportunities for savvy investors. Technical analysis has pinpointed the price that’s right for a plunge on the coal-to-Coles conglomerate.

Like much of its listed retail cohort, Wesfarmers has seen price strength earlier in 2013 give way to weakness. And the recent news of job cuts at its Target operation has deepened the negative sentiment. On Wednesday, shares were down 63¢ at $37.23 – a five-month low.181620-wesfarmers-1h-profit

This weekly price chart, produced by technical analyst Mark Umansky, shows Wesfarmers was held in a congestive range between $28 and $34 a share between May 2010 and August 2012.

The market then retested the highs, and a ”minor double top” formation developed. Then the stock fell back, going into what Umansky describes as ”free fall”.

A reversal from a double-top formation is likely to lead to a fall from the breakdown point (where the stock fell through $40) of the same magnitude as the distance between the top and bottom of the double top formation. That means the next target is $36.60.

Should this position not hold, then the next support level should be $35, which is the upper resistance in the second of our congestion channels. If that fails then $34, the floor of the second resistance channel and the upper level of the first, should provide the next support level.

Retail sales tipped to remain subdued

RETAIL sales have improved recently but the bounce is unlikely to continue, with a rise in the national jobless rate tipped and ongoing consumer caution.

Deloitte Access Economics says the retail market remains extremely competitive despite a strong March quarter when sales grew by 2.2 per cent.

“Yet that rate of sales growth is unlikely to be sustained for any length of time,” Deloitte partner David Rumbens said in the firm’s latest retail forecasts report released on Friday.

An expected rise in the unemployment rate in 2013 and subdued consumer confidence was not providing “strong grounding” for robust growth in the sector, he added.

Treasury has forecast the jobless rate to rise from around 5.5 per cent now to 5.75 per cent in the next year, although some private sector economists think it could go as high as six per cent.Susanne Pinin Retail  Square1

AdvertisementMr Rumbens also warned retailers would be affected by measures outlined in the May federal budget that reduce household disposable income, particularly from 2014/15.

These measures include a rise in the Medicare levy from July 2014 to partly pay for the national disability care scheme, cuts to family tax benefits and the baby bonus.

Mr Rumbens believes the days of budget tax cuts are “long gone”.

Meanwhile, retail sales turnover is forecast to rise by three per cent in this 2012/13 financial year, and by 2.8 per cent in 2013/14 and by three per cent in 2014/15.

While mining concentrated regions of Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory led retail sales growth in 2012, growth in the March 2013 quarter of this year was driven by lower interest rates.

Federation ups forecasts as sales loom

Federation Centres are to finalise a third tranche of shopping centre sales that will take the amount of equity it has raised to about $1.7 billion.

Federation’s sale of half stakes shopping centres worth about $1.2 billion to a Middle Eastern fund advised by challenger is moving close to completion.

It will be the third major joint venture Steven Sewell has set up and his model, which has made the group self-funding has given it an edge while rivals look to establish their own capital partnering models.art-SA-shopping-20120802190810709957-620x349

It formed joint ventures with Perth based Perron Group, which took a half stake in $1.38 billion of assets, and super fund backed ISPT, which took a half stake in $742.8 million of centres.

The latest deal is anchored by the Challenger advised fund buying half stakes in Sydney’s Roselands and Bankstown centres.

Stakes in Centro in Toormina near Coffs Harbour in NSW, Centro Lennox in Emu Plains in Sydney’s western suburbs, Sunshine Marketplace in Melbourne, and Centro Karratha in WA, north of Perth, are also part of the sale portfolio.

 

DJs struggles with electronics

David Jones has reported $391.1 million in sales for the three months to April 27, a 2.2 per cent fall from the previous corresponding period, as a mild winter impacted its womenswear business and the home categories continued to struggle.

David Jones shares plunged 12 cents, or 4.65 per cent, to $2.46 in early trade.

The department store chain said like-for-like sales dropped 3.4 per cent for the quarter.

David Jones.Cutting costs … David Jones. Photo: Michael Clayton-Jones

“The unseasonably warm start to winter impacted our business, in particular womenswear,” chief executive Paul Zahra said this morning. “Our overall sales performance was once again adversely impacted by our home categories, in particular electronics which continues to be subject to industry and price pressures.”

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David Jones added that it had made progress exiting and consolidating its low productivity categories and remained focused on managing its costs.

“In the current environment of cautious consumer sentiment we made a deliberate decision to continue to focus on the areas of our business that we can control namely [gross profit] margins, inventory and costs,” Mr Zahra said.

The retailer has previously stated it plans to exit the DVDs, games and music categories.

‘Discounting not sustainable’

Mr Zahra said David Jones continued its strategy of reducing its discounting program during the quarter. The store’s mid-season sale was reduced by one week, while there was no $10 million Floor Stock Clearance.

“Our view is that the ongoing increase in the depth and breadth of discounting that we are seeing in the market is not sustainable,” he said. “This is a view shared by many brands and as a result we have seen an increase in the number of brands looking to convert their distribution arrangement to department store exclusive agreements with David Jones.

“Our view is that the ongoing increase in the depth and breadth of discounting that we are seeing in the market is not sustainable,’’ Mr Zahra said.

But he acknowledged the David Jones June clearance would need to be competitive with other retailers that may start heavy discounting, due to a build up of excess winter inventory.

Last week, rival chain Myer held a ”Super Saturday” stocktake sale to lift sales and shift extra stock from some of its suppliers. Myer also last week reported a 0.5 per cent increase in sales for the three months to April 27 to $652.5 million.

Tapping Chinese tourists

David Jones will launch a partnership with UnionPay, China’s dominant payment card supplier, later this week to tap the deep pockets of rich Chinese tourists.

Mr Zahra said the partnership was a “good opportunity” given that more than 700,000 Chinese nationals visited Australia annually and the average transaction size on the UnionPay card was the highest in the world.

How Malls in Latin America are Redefining Community Spirit

Marcel Proust has rightly said, “The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes”, and this was certainly validated to me on my recent trip to Chile and Argentina.
Having been invited as a guest speaker at RECON 2013 – the International Council of Shopping Centres’ Latin American chapter, I spent a week visiting Santiago and Buenos Aires, and what almost immediately became apparent is the rationale behind planning F&B precincts and destinations in Latin America – it is all about community and socializing!Dot Mall 1
The actual conference focused specifically on the enormous current and future growth in shopping malls in Latin America and what will shape this growth as people’s needs and expectations from a ‘standard’ Mall move well beyond a shopping centre and focus more on Town Centre – where retail, food, entertainment, socialising, education, community services, and everyday services hub defines the space. Shopping centres in Latin America are a ‘public realm’ of sorts that have the ability to provide a safe and energising mall environment for all the family, all day, every day. From a developer’s viewpoint, ‘spending mall time equates to spending money’ and this has been proven in the many cases of new multifaceted malls springing up across the South American continent. Countries such as Brazil and Mexico are setting the standard in creating shopping mall environments, something many mall developers can only dream of in developed countries.
During the conference, my study tour and independent visit of major malls and development in both Chile and Argentina, Latin America’s love for shopping malls, dinning out, entertainment and retail shopping technology was evident across all cities and suburbs. The rising middle class has created an endless demand for food and beverage services along with retail and they seek world-class hospitality and entertainment experiences.

Shopping malls across both Chile and Argentina have a strong history. Ranging from the classical beauty found in Buenos Aires at the Galerias Pacifico and Patio Bullrich to the modern architecture of Recoleta Mall and Paseo Alcorta. In addition to traditional shopping malls, Buenos Aires has vibrant and reputable shopping, dining, dancing and socialising precincts within established suburbs of Palermo and Recoleta. The modern, larger suburban malls of Dot Baries Shopping and Unicentre reflect all the good and Galerias Pacifico 1not so good elements of larger suburban malls, which have been planned to maximise retail diversity. In my opinion however, these two malls have failed to address aspects of the social and entertainment needs of the greater community, which they serve.Parque-1_Sml
Santiago was definitely an eye opener for me. The city boasts many large and popular shopping malls, all offering a strong sense of community as they challenge the status quo of shopping malls – they offer diverse F&B options from food courts, to dining precincts and smart cafe offers. Malls here are seen as a safe place, somewhere the whole family, young and old can park securely, socialise, dine, be entertained and be part of the local community – a spirit that was evident everywhere I went. In fact most consumers can get almost anything at the ‘local mall’, including a new car! The ‘Auto Plaza’ has proven to be a winner in the bigger shopping malls, where men are lured to the mall, not just to be with the family, but to view what is new in the world of cars and auto accessories – a coup to encouraging male foot fall to a traditional shopping centre!

Kind Regards
Francis Loughran – Managing Director

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